2010 and International Property: Turning Rebound into Recovery... Starring Supply & Demand

2010 is shaping up as the year when things really get moving again in the world of overseas property. 2009 will be known in history as the year the rebound started, and 2010 will determine whether or not the rebound turns into a full scale recovery.

In terms of a property market recovery this looks like being determined by 2 main factors, supply and demand. Before you slap me for stating the obvious, what I mean is: whether demand will continue to rise as government and financial stimuli are removed, and whether or not construction firms can uncurl themselves from the protective ball they rolled into quickly enough to prevent the recovery from stalling.

Sure, this is not the case in all markets; Spain and Dubai are shouting out at me as completely different situations because they are struggling to see any real rises in demand, and have oversupply sufficient to last about 5 years unless sales accelerate rapidly. None the less, that is a pretty good model.

Turkey fits that model perfectly: new home sales in Turkey were 14% higher in the first nine months of this year than last year, and demand has continued to rise, meanwhile construction contracted by almost 20% this year. Now we must all watch and hope that construction can accelerate fast enough so that demand needn't stall on the way up.

Apart from some exceptions, Asia has the supply balance about right for the most part. Thailand is a good example: Thai property developers abandoned the international market early in the crisis, to concentrate on domestic demand, for which they ramped up their development plans; launching new projects throughout this year, so there should be plenty of supply there.

Malaysia however, is now looking at an oversupply problem as developers all (uncurl from their protective balls) come out of the blocks at the same time.

Montenegro could be the one to watch in 2010: when the international crisis came down, most of Montenegro's developers were locked in the country's lengthy planning stages, which meant they were able to simply hold off their plans, without having to cancel developments, or make any kind of announcement. In fact Montenegro has probably been the least talked about market in 2009, and the say no news is good news.

According to a conveyance I interviewed a while back for an article in Overseas Property Mall, many Montenegro developers were left holding land-banks, rather than those in Dubai holding half-finished developments and headaches. 2010 will be the year when all those plans are relaunched, and any that aren't will represent an abundance of cheap land for sale in Montenegro, for any new developers that want to enter the market. The only thing Montenegro will need to watch out for is over-supply, but with the country's lengthy planning phase that really shouldn't be a problem.

Top 3 Property Investments for 2010

I have seen a lot of articles in the last week or 2 highlighting the best property investments for 2010. Brazil has been on every one of them, but it won’t be on mine, and you’ll quickly understand why.

1: Turkey

Turkey received over 28 million tourists from around the world in 2008 and there is every indication the number has grown slightly this year. According to government officials they are still on track for their target of 30 million by 2010.

In 2008 they received 1.5 million British visitors. This is expected to be 3 million by 2010, not least because of the strong Euro.

The simple fact is there just aren’t enough commercial accommodation slots for such massive numbers of tourists, which brings rapidly rising demand for privately rented holiday accommodation in Turkey.

This is set to be further boosted as tourism continues to grow and as more and more people use the internet to compile their own package holidays for better quality accommodation and cheaper flights.

Then you have the value for money factor: Turkish property at its low prices always offered fantastic value for money. However, now that the Euro is a lot stronger against the pound, whilst the lira is weaker than its previous long-term average, Turkish property is offering even greater value for money.

According to realtors, Turkish property owners are currently fetching yields upwards of 6%. This is already very impressive and will grow as demand for rental property grows faster than prices in the next 2 years.

2: Egypt

In Egypt’s case it is also rising tourism and low property prices that make it one of the top overseas property investment destinations for 2010.

In our opinion the Red Sea Riviera, especially Hurghada is offering the best opportunities. There are currently dozens of apartments for sale in Hurghada offering guaranteed rental yields of 10 or 12% for 1 to 5 years.

This is because you can buy a 2 bedroom apartment in Hurghada for less than £40k and rent it for about £350 per week. giving a gross yield of 13.94% gross from a very conservative 15 week (32% approx) occupancy. If you make it a more realistic 60% (30wk approx) the gross yield is 25%. Now you can see why Hurghada properties come with such exceptional guaranteed rental yields.

3: America

Whatever we think about America, it is still the largest economy in the world, and it still owns the currency we all base trade on. Properties in America are currently being sold at between 10% more than in 2007, to about 40% less than they were worth in 2007, depending on where you look. Not to mention the tens of thousands of distressed and repossessed properties being sold at discounts of up to 60%.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to pick a property that will make a 10% rental yield or maybe even a little more, and to grow as the local economy recovers. Nor does it take a rocket scientist to also make sure that property is capable of regaining its 2007 value in a reasonable amount of time.

Investors doing the calculations on carefully chosen properties are coming up with yields of 140% – 200% after 5 years.

We also like Malaysia because of its strong economic fundamentals, stable property market and favourable tax laws, and India because it is set to see demand for property continue to outstrip supply at an alarming rate.

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Overseas Property Investment Comes Back in, Causing the Emerging/Established Market Debate

Things are really starting to move again in the world of overseas property investment. At present most private residential investors, and a large proportion of commercial entities as well are focusing their investments on distressed and/or heavily discounted opportunities, which exist predominantly in established markets.

In fact before this week even property price growth in emerging markets was being portrayed as a bad thing, because of fears over the formation of the next bubble -- if only we had all been so cautious between 2004 and 2007.

This week I came across the first positive reports on emerging market property investment:

Firstly a report on the Thomson Reuters survey of investors, which found that 85% of investors are expecting Asian property to yield over 10% next year, with only 13% expecting European and US markets to match such growth.

Then a report in Moneyweek, which said apart from a few "bright spots" in Europe, Australia, and Canada, it is only selected emerging markets in Asia, and the likes of Brazil which offer any real chance of major profits from property investments.

That said: buy to let is regaining its former glory. The likes of Florida, Orlando, Tampa etc and other emerging economic regions like Detroit seem to be presenting an absolutely fool proof buy to let investment opportunity. Whereas before you could only find guaranteed yields of 10% in emerging property markets like Egypt, now there are many heavily discounted properties in the US and other established markets with similar guaranteed yields.

It is hard to decide which is the best to go for: do you bank on tourism rising to previously seen levels earlier than the local and national economy recovers to sufficient levels for employment to start rising.

However, unemployment is often the last thing to turnaround after a recession, especially one as severe as this one, and so tourism is likely to recover faster in the near-term. That means choosing areas of rapid tourism growth for your investment, which in my opinion highlights Hurghada in Egypt, the north east of Brazil; Natal and of course Orlando and Tampa in Florida.

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Dubai World Restructuring Won’t Affect Property Market – Yeah Right!

OMG I nearly chocked on my coffee for trying not to laugh at this statement: "[the Dubai World debt restructuring] will have no significance [on the real estate sector] because restructuring is a normal word."

The statement comes from one Abdul Majeed Ismail Al Fahim, chairman of Dubai Pearl, speaking to Arabian Business.

He is right; restructuring is a normal word, and one which has been used so much in the last 12 - 18 months that it has almost become white noise in the global-economic newsroom. So, if this had simply been a case of Dubai World "restructuring" its debt then yes, the negative effect may well have been minimal.

That is: if it hadn't been made public that Dubai World had been forced to ask its creditors to postpone its debts, before there was any talk of the word "restructuring". But there was, and because there was we analysts have been able to fill in the blanks and have done so in national newspapers from Arabia to Zimbabwe (excuse the potential for a slight exaggeration there).

The real story goes: state-owned Dubai World is financially incapable of honouring its debts, and the real financial powerhouse of the Emirates (A.K.A Dubai’s rich uncle) refused to bail it out any longer, so it was forced into its current situation. Now the world looks on to see how much of a lesson the rich uncle wants to teach its easily led nephew.

Because of the way the story unfolded this is almost certain to have a negative impact on the property market. After shedding almost 50% in less than a year, Dubai property prices rose 7% in the 3rd quarter according to Colliers international. But one of the market’s biggest potential obstacles was always going to be residual negativity about the crash.

This had obviously began to fade as prices started to rise, but the Dubai World fiasco is bound to set back international sentiment by reminding us all just how much money fell into the Dubai pit never to be seen again.

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Bulgaria Property Finally Making the News for the Right Reasons

The Bulgaria property market has been getting a lot of attention lately, most recently because the government has stopped allowing people to pay in cash when buying property, and because a major new developer is currently assessing buyer demand with the launch of a new development that has been in the pipeline since 2007.

The announcement from the government is undoubtedly an attempt to reduce corruption and money laundering in the property market, which will no doubt be reassuring for foreign buyers in the long run.

The developer, Immorent has launched a new 200 unit apartment development in the high end Simeonovo district of Sophia. Immorent will only be starting construction on the development if sufficient demand emerges from the domestic and international markets. They are not aking deposits or anything like that, just allowing people to register their interest at this stage.

Managing director of the firm Milen Petrov told Overseas Property Professional magazine that despite Bulgaria's dramatic price falls, there was still a lack of good quality product on the market. But the company wanted to assess demand before starting construction.
"We don't need the money from sales to start building," he said. "We purchased the land in 2007 and the project has been in the design stage since. But the big question now is whether to start or to wait."
The company are planning to target the upper-middle end of the market both in Bulgaria and abroad, Petrov added. "We would prefer local buyers who want to live in the properties but we are also marketing to Russian buyers, as well as UK and Scandinavian investors and even nearby Macedonians."

The commercial and retail sector of the Sophia property market have also been making the news recently, including the opening of the European Trade Centre, a five building office complex and shopping mall, now scheduled for Spring 2010. Those sectors ultimately stimulate demand in the residential sector, and my gut tells me that the Immorent development will go ahead.

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Turkey Has Outgrown the Need for EU Membership [Opinion]

Turkey has outgrown the need for EU membership and become a world beating property investment destination while doing so, writes Liam Bailey.

There has been a lot of talk in the press this week about how Turkey -- frustrated by the EU process seemingly going in the wrong direction -- is turning to the east in the hope of expanding its global influence and economic growth potential. While reading these articles it suddenly occurred to me: Turkey has outgrown the need for EU membership -- it is going on fine without it.

What benefit would full EU membership have to Turkey's property investment package? The answer is: very little.

In the Eastern Bloc, EU membership brought about a substantial gain in the economies of several countries, by bringing about massive growth in tourism, exports and their services sectors.

Tourism to Turkey has grown massively in the last few years; hitting over 28million visitors last year. Even this year, during a global recession Turkish tourism has continued to grow massively.

The economy has taken a battering but that is hardly a criticism given the number of economies it shares a common recent history with. No one is saying that UK property is not a worthwhile investment just because its economy fell into recession - are they?

In fact it is the way the crisis has affected Turkey that make property in the country look like an even better investment.

Yes, the economy has contracted by over 5% this year. But the economy has not collapsed into a heap, and/or been forced to take its begging bowl to the International Monetary Fund in order to survive, as some other EU members and hopefuls have been: Hungary, Ukraine, Latvia, and Belarus. Even Russia is falling over itself trying to protect the rouble against a $33 barrel of oil.

Even Germany, Europe's largest economy is expected to have contracted by 9% this year. Meanwhile Turkey has been outside of IMF assistance since May this year, and Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan is resisting signing a new deal, because it would weaken his growing international prowess as a regional power.

Meanwhile in Turkey, like many EU countries and those around the world, economic prospects are beginning to improve. Everyone is picking themselves up and surveying the smoking rubble to see just how bad things got, and how bad things could have got.

The Turkish real estate industry grew by 2% in the two months ending October according to Turkish news agency Hurriyet. This, an acceleration on the 3% growth recorded in the previous 9 months.

This is mainly based on domestic demand, because of the low interest rates, but in terms of private buyers from overseas, there has never been a better time to buy Turkish property, especially if you're British.

While the pound is struggling to gain any real ground against the euro and US dollar -- largely because the Bank of England wants it to stay weak so UK companies can gain a better international export foothold -- the good old British currency is riding high against the Turkish lira.

In the last few weeks Turkish property has fluctuated between being 9% cheaper to British buyers than it was in April, and being 11% cheaper to British buyers. As the currencies currently lie Turkish property is almost 12% cheaper to British buyers than it was in April (based on a 1.00GBP/2.516TYR exchange rate at the time of writing.).

Forex company Moneycorp recently told Write About Property in a podcasted interview that the pound would be staying strong against the lira for the foreseeable future, but it is not an ever-lasting window of opportunity.

Nor is the record low borrowing rate in Turkey. It is a misconception that foreigners cannot get mortgages in Turkey. Yes, it is true that mortgages can only be obtained on completed properties. This rules out off plan purchases, but on completed properties, foreigners are just as able to secure finance as Turks.

The borrowing rate in Turkey has recently been cut by a further 25 basis points to the record low of 6.50%. This means that foreigners can pay off loans much quicker, reducing the necessary financial commitment, and putting a Turkish property purchase within reach of more people than ever before.

View Turkey property for sale with Azure Overseas today, including the new key-ready Casmark golf apartments on the Bodrum Peninsula priced from £16,500.

Outlook on Spanish Property Market Improving

The outlook for the Spanish property market has been improving in recent months. The rate of decline in house prices slowed in the third quarter, as it had in the second according to new data from the Global Property Guide.

Spanish house prices fell by 7% between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009 according to the GPG index of global house prices. This is slower than the 8.3% contraction between Q2 2008 and Q2 2009 recorded by the Knight Frank estate agency in its index of global house prices.

The quarter on quarter decline in Q3 was just 0.49% according to the GPG index, which is again a lot slower than the 1.9% quarterly decline recorded by Knight Frank in Q2. Based on this slowing in Q3 it is possible that quarterly price growth will run into positive territory in the 4th quarter.

Given the state of the Spanish economy it is entirely plausible that the positive data is because of the increased demand from foreign buyers, which has been seen since April.

New data from mortgagesolutions.com has said that Spanish banks are surprisingly willing to lend to overseas buyers. Overseas mortgage firm Conti has further said that 22% of its enquiries for overseas property mortgages have been for Spanish property purchases.

Recently overseas property portal Property Abroad.com have put Spanish property as second most popular with those searching for property on the site in October. Spain has held second place in the portal's top 10 chart for several months, since being knocked out of 1st place by the popularity of America since May. The Move Channel and Primelocation also put Spain as second most popular in recent monthly charts.

Spain has also been noted for its distressed and repossessed property opportunities. According to overseas property expert Liam Bailey, of sector specialist copywriting firm Write About Property, these opportunities have the potential to be excellent investments, if one chooses carefully, he said in a recent article:

"You simply need to consider who is going to buy the property from you when it is time to sell. If you are buying in one of the areas most popular with expats, and plan your exit strategy based on expatriate buyers, then you must avoid the most over-developed areas; sunbathing is not a spectator sport, and most people will want a half-decent view on at least one side of their holiday properties.

"But if you choose carefully you should be able to resell a property you buy now for at least a 30% profit in 2-4 years."

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Five Reasons Egyptian Property Should be on Everyone's Shortlist

Egypt has been growing popular with tourists from around the world and visitor numbers have been increasing at a rapid rate. More recently Egypt has also been looked at by increasing numbers of property buyers. Most people are currently favouring the security of established markets, because the emerging markets have not shown the growth they were supposed to.

However, this growth has only been postponed by the credit crunch, in most cases the forecast growth is still set to become a reality. Egypt is one of those cases. Below is 5 reasons why anyone who fails to consider Egypt property will be missing out in a big way.

1: Cheap Property - Exceptional Rental Yields

Egypt is known for having among the cheapest property in the world. On the Red Sea Riviera, which encapsulates some of Egypt's fastest growing tourism hot-spots -- most notably Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada -- studios start from as little as £10k and you can buy a luxury 2 bedroom apartment for less than £50k.

The average rent for such properties is around £300 per week and occupancy of around 15-20 weeks per year is currently being achieved. The result is a gross rental yield of 12.5% on Red Sea Riviera property. Now you can understand why so many Sharm el-Sheikh and Hurghada properties come with guaranteed rental yields of 8% and upwards.

Another great thing about the Red Sea Riviera is that most of it is protected by the government, so it will never be overdeveloped. This will ensure demand always outstrips supply keeping prices going up.

2: Rising Tourism Set to Increase Occupancy and Yields

In an interview with Write About Property earlier this year, the Association for British Travel Agents said that tourism to Egypt from Britain had been growing at around 20% per year for the last few years, and forecast that the strong euro would see growth hit 25% this year.

3: Low Crime Rates

Often the only negative about an emerging market is its crime rate. This is not the case in Egypt. Though the Sharia law system has attracted some negative press in recent years, this is mostly because of extreme interpretations of it, for the most part it is a fair system and one that is hugely succesfull in keeping crime to a minimum. This means that those who buy Egypt property can do so in the knowledge that they and anyone else who uses the property will be safe, and so will the property when it is not in use.

4: Massive Economic Growth Set to Push Prices Upward

People often forget, but Egypt is a part of Africa. This is forgotten, because Egypt is an Arab state and is heavily active in Middle Eastern politics. No matter, Egypt is geographically part of Africa, and like many African states that have secured peace, Egypt is currently making the transition between being a third world country, and an industrialised middle income nation -- with a roaring services sector.

This can be seen in World Bank reports, which show how Egypt's economy has changed from having agriculture as the largest contributor to GDP, to having industrial sectors taking over as the largest contributor, and then the services sector knocking even the industrial sector back into second place.

The same can be seen in most emerging markets, as the advent of budget airlines and IT technology becoming affordable to the masses triggered massive growth in tourism, services outsourcing, and domestic services growth.

However, Egypt is one of the fastest emerging economies in the world. According to the CIA World Factbook the Egyptian economy has grown at 7% per year since 2006.

The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 4.7% growth this year and 4.5% next year -- not bad for a global recession. Over the next few years Egyptian economic growth is forecast to average between 6% and 10% per year. This will cause property prices to rise by at least the value of inflation, -- as materials and labour cost more -- in Egypt that is about 10-15% per year.

However, in rapidly emerging economies it is not uncommon for prices to grow much faster, anywhere up to 30% per year.

5: The Perfect Tourist Package

Egypt has the perfect tourism package: great climate, long-season and great beaches. Because it is very early in its emergence it also offers the opportunity to enjoy the kind of cheap holiday that just isn't possible in Europe anymore. This means it is excellent for you and your family and friends to enjoy holidays in your property, as well as making the fantastic rental yields mentioned above.

Article Provided by Azure Overseas, view property for sale in Egypt with Azure Overseas now.

European Property Investment on the Increase – Now is the Time to Get Back in the Saddle

Investment in European property jumped 53% in the third quarter of 2009 according to Cushman and Wakefield. Yields are also on the up across Europe. With the exception of the UK, the average yield on European property investments rose 3 basis points on the quarter – the largest quarterly rise since late 2007.

This was part of a report from Cushman and Wakefield on the rising confidence in the European real estate investment sector.

Now is certainly looking like a very good time to get back into overseas property investment in Europe, with a view to completing acquisitions into 2010. Take Germany for example:

Jones Lang la Salle are forecasting that rents on German offices will be 6% lower by the end of this year. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe, largely because of its massive export sector.

A dramatic fall in rental rates on German offices, in line with business expansion beginning to remerge, will likely spark a massive drive on business expansion in German cities; local business expansion, and foreign companies taking advantage of the situation to open offices in Germany.

This will stimulate increased demand in the residential sectors, on property to rent and property to buy. German property has often been overlooked by residential property investors, because other locations offer more spectacular yields, but German property has always been a world beater in terms of the risk/reward ration on buy to let investments,

Now that the foreign investors the world over have learned that solid rental potential that can withstand external pressures is the key to a sound property investment, German property is likely to be high on more people’s short-lists. Such a dramatic fall in office rental rates will push it even higher.

On top of that we have the fact that Germany and Italy accounted for 63% of all retail property investments in the first half of this year. Retail investment is expected to increase in the second half of the year according to analysis by CB RIchard Ellis, and Germany’s retail sector is well placed for some solid growth. This will further fuel demand in the residential sector.

Romania is another market seeing some good expansion in the commercial office sector of late. Analysis by BNP Paribas noted a major increase in sub-leasing from small business expansion. With most of the growth coming from companies involved in business consultancy, IT, private medical public institutions and Utilities, indicating expansion in those sectors within the economy. Therefore demand for residential Romanian property should see some growth in 2010.

Bulgaria sees the opening of the European Trade Centre, a five building office complex and shopping mall in Sofia, now scheduled for Spring 2010. This, again will stimulate increasing demand for Bulgarian property to rent and buy in the residential sector in the area.

Outside of Europe proper, Turkey is doing very well on the back of low interest rates and extended term mortgages. In the two months ending October, the Turkish real estate sector expanded by 2%, compared to a growth of 3% in the previous 9 months. This acceleration is thought to have been because of improving sentiment, and derestricted lending by the banks, including an increase in the term of low-rate loans from 60 months to 10 years.

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Is the American Housing Market Really in Recovery?

In the last few of months the amount of positive data about the American housing market has been increasing.

The trusted Case-Shiller index began recording price increases in Q2, and these were matched by reports of increasing demand, and in line with reports that the US economy was also on the road to recovery.

The US economy grew by 0.9% in the third quarter, but is the US housing market really on the fell of a V-shaped recovery, or is this simply a bounce?

It all started back in Q2... Case-Shiller ended months and months and months of falling prices across the board in August, when they reported that prices had only fallen in 5 out of the 20 states covered in the index. Prices had either risen or stayed the same in the other 15.

This is when reports began to circulate from various sources that the US housing market had stabilised and was on the road to recovery. Throughout July and August more positive data was revealed for June, US construction spending saw an unexpected rise of 0.3%, compared to a 0.8% fall the month before, sales increased by 11% on the month, and pending sales by 3%.

But at the same time, there were also countless news stories on the rising number of repossessions throughout August. Even now there are literally thousands of homes entering the repossession process every week, and many more struggling to avoid it. Unemployment also showed some signs of turning around, but has as yet failed to do so in any real way.

And the picture has remained pretty much the same since August: there have been many positive reports of increased and increasing sales, a lot of positive data on prices, while the problems of repossession and unemployment loom large, threatening to pull the rug out at any moment.

Bringing it back to today, a Wall Street Journal report reads:

Home sales have increased from the severely depressed levels of 2008. The inventory of unsold homes listed for sale also is down. Bidding wars are breaking out for foreclosed homes in the sorts of neighborhoods (near jobs and decent schools) that attract both first-time buyers and investors seeking rental properties.

But more than 6.7 million U.S. households with mortgages, or about 13%, are behind on their payments or are in the foreclosure process, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Eventually, many of them will lose those homes, sending more supply onto the market. Unemployment has continued to rise, and the housing market is unlikely to show a sustained recovery until job growth resumes.

The picture of the US housing market as a whole is very similar to that of the UK, but on a much larger scale: there are some positive signs; the people who can afford to buy in cash or get affordable finance, are taking advantage of the bargains and repossessed properties. Meanwhile continually rising repossessions and unemployment threaten to send prices back into freefall at any moment.

Some people have also suggested that it was only the government incentive package, which paid a percentage of a first time buyer's house purchase that was causing the positive data. That scheme terminates this month.

So, the answer to the question: is the US housing market recovering is a resounding maybe according to official data and mainstream sources.

In my personal opinion: what we have seen is not the beginning of the recovery proper, it has been a bounce caused by the government stimulus and improved sentiment. Repossessions and unemployment will begin to re-exert downward pressure on prices in the next 6 months. The proper recovery will only begin when unemployment begins to fall, and even then price growth will be subdued for 2-5 years as America get's back on its feet and the repossession problem is finally brought under control.

That said: there is always criticism of me and others for even reporting on UK house prices as a whole, when every region is different. And this is even more true in the US.

The same WSJ report tells us that house prices in Summit, N.J., known for good schools and an easy, 45-minute train commute to Manhattan, the median home price in September was up 1.2% from a year earlier, according to Otteau Valuation Group, an appraisal company. While in Atlantic City, N.J., which suffers from too much speculative building of condominiums and weak demand for vacation homes, the median price is down about 12% from a year ago.

I agree, it is slightly pointless to report countrywide prices if you look at it from that perspective, but the average US house price and whether it is rising or falling will always be a focus for global property pundits, especially now we have all witnessed the effect it can have on the global economy.

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Brazil Property Being ogled by the World's Investors -- and Rightly So

Brazil property is having its 40 seconds of fame at the moment, but is it all hype and no trousers? The answer to that question is always going to be primarily based on opinion, unless you know any authentic psychics that is.

I don't, but what I do know is that a blind man in the dark can see the potential gains to be made in the next decade, from a carefully chosen Brazil property investment.

Let me start at the beginning, with the massive potential for growth in the Brazilian economy:

Brazil has a massive agricultural sector; with the second largest head of cattle it is the second largest exporter of meat products, and is in the top 5 exporters of many other agriculturally produced food products.

Taking that into context; the largest contributor to Brazil's GDP before 1997 was its industrial sector, with the manufacturing sub-sector the largest contributor in the sector. Between 1987 and 97 the industrial sector was replaced by the massively growing services sector as largest contributor to GDP. The industrial sector regained some ground between then and 2006, but the services sector made up for 64% of GDP in 2007 (figures courtesy of World Bank).

This is mainly because of massive growth in tourism -- including medical tourism -- and because of the outsourcing boom that spread growth to the four corners of the developing world, as developed nations took advantage of their developing neighbours for cheap labour and everybody benefited (okay some more than others, but it's a capitalist world in which we live).

It is often asked why it is so common that the services sector has become the largest contributor to so many countries' GDP. Tourism is always mentioned as a reason, but sometimes it seems implausible that tourism would have grown sufficiently in such a short space of time to have become the main contributor to GDP.

However, tourism is not the only thing that grows, in recent years the advent of the budget airlines has generated billions in revenues for almost every country in the world. So it is growth in tourism as well as massive growth in the airline industry that combines with other elements of the services sector to put it on top.

This potential for growth went off the scale, when on top of all the above Brazil discovered a sizeable oil field lying below the sea and rock of its territorial waters. Everyone knows that oil is a massive revenue generator, and the find will certainly make Brazil one of the largest economies in the world.

Its massive potential for economic growth is enough to make Brazil property a favourite with property investors. So the fact that Brazil won the honour of hosting the World Cup in 2014, and Rio de Janeiro the Olympics two years later was simply the icing on the cake of Brazil property's popularity with overseas buyers.

Brazil property is currently being looked at very closely by almost every property investment fund currently operating, and is also the focus of millions of private investors who can see the massive potential profit from a buy to let investment in the country, which will also grow significantly in terms of capital value as well.

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UK Employment Data Turning Positive will Spark Rise in British Appetite for Overseas Property

Today the Office for National Statistics revealed the latest data on the UK labour market, and while it is a lot more positive than previous reports, overall it is still negative, as we can see from Sterling losing some ground to the Euro and the Dollar.

Positivity comes in the fact that 86,000 more people were in part-time employment in Q3 than in Q2. Unfortunately that is tempered by an 80,000 fall in the number of people in full time employment. The combination of the two gives a positive 6000 more people in employment in the July-September quarter than in the previous quarter. However, the number of unemployed people climbed 30,000 to 2.46 million.

While I said that the report was negative overall, which as you can see it is in terms of raw data, however, in terms of interpretation this can only be called a positive report. This is because the rise in unemployed people is a lot smaller than previous quarters, and it contains the words "increase" and "in the number of people in employment", in the same sentence. All previous reports this year have been a solid wall of negative data.

The fact that the number of people in part-time employment rose could be said to show that employers are beginning to test the waters of expansion by hiring part-time staff, although the report says it is simply people taking part-time jobs because they can't find full time ones.

Either way, like I said, this is the first labour market review to contain any positive data, and it confirms that the UK economy is passed its lowest point and on the road to recovery. How this relates to overseas property investment is simple.

Since the first UK economic indicators turned positive in April, demand for overseas property has been increasing as British buyers returned to their favourite foreign hotspots. This has primarily been well-off Brits, who weren't left in financial difficulty by the recession, but who were fearful of just how bad it could get; that they might become affected eventually. Now that the full effect can be measured more easily their confidence has returned.

However, many more potential buyers have been waiting for unemployment to run out of rocket fuel before they felt confident in the recovery. Now that the ONS has revealed clear data that suggests that point is upon us. It will likely mark further increases in demand for overseas property among British buyers.

This will be hindered by the fact that finance is still very restricted for property purchases abroad, just as it is in the UK. This is because, unlike the first group of returning buyers, those returning because fear for their job is subsiding are more likely to be looking for finance to make their purchase.

That said, while finance is hard to come by, it is not impossible, so there will be a rise in demand for overseas property from British buyers. This demand will continue to rise as unemployment falls, as mortgages get easier to obtain and as Sterling regains its former glory.

German Property Perfect for Today’s Breed of Investor – to benefit from Crunch

German property investment has totalled 1.9 billion Euros so far this year according to a new report by Savills. The investment consultancy says that the money spent so far has been mostly by German Real Estate Investment Trusts, but that it expects the return of foreigners in 2010.

German property could do very well in the coming years, and if it does then it will have the credit crunch to thank.

Before the credit crunch, German property was constantly losing out to the emerging markets, and even to its neighbouring established markets, when it came to overseas property investment, because investors will primarily looking for exceptional capital gain.

Now that people have seen in no uncertain terms how quickly any capital gain can be lost, today's property investor is primarily looking for solid rental performance in their property of choice. For that type of investor Germany is perfect.

In Germany only 42% of the population owns their own home, and 44% rent at the market rate (according to recent figures from Eurostat).

This means that the government has to restrict rental rates, and landlords are only allowed to raise rents if the economy is growing. That is where the downside ends. In Germany tenants are very loyal, and when one tenant leaves it is relatively easy to find another. Typical yields are around the 4% mark, or around 6% in some areas.

Another reason why German property is perfect for today's investor is the abundant availability of properties with tenants already in place. Today's investor is researching their acquisitions to within an inch of their lives. Having the tenant in place with a rent figure set allows the potential investor to have exact figures on which to calculate the cash-flow from their German investment property.

It is also worth mentioning the fact that there are very few -- if any -- off plan property in Germany. Especially in Berlin it is almost all resale apartments in buildings built 40-100 years ago. This is also highly suited to today's risk averse property investor.

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£700K Greek Property Sale to British Buyer Tells a Lot about the Overseas Property Industry Today

I just read a press release. Apparently Azure Overseas have sold a 3 bedroom villa on the Greek island of Samos to a Brit for £700k. As the press release rightly points out, this is a massive signal that the reports of increasing appetite for overseas property is increasing within Britain. This is undoubtedly as a result of major increases in consumer confidence in the last few months.

I have had a look in the Halcyon Hills development, obviously I don't know the full details of the sale, but the finance on properties is up to 80% LTV, which means a 20% deposit, which means this person -- a solicitor from Surrey according to the release -- paid a deposit of about £170k for this property.

But the biggest part of the story for me, is the fact that the property is off plan. During the worst of the credit crunch, when the reports of developments being postponed and cancelled in Dubai were never going to end, there were people who believe no one would ever buy an off plan property again. Then, a couple of months ago, Overseas Property Professional, in a report into increasing demand for overseas property, said that the demand for off plan was rising also.

However, the reports that the new breed of overseas property buyers would be doing their own research at great length, and not buying on the strength of the agent's word are also confirmed by the press release.

I always said that anyone who did their research would not have bought in Dubai, and that off plan property will always be a great investment if the research is done properly. Thank fully the new breed of researching overseas property buyer is not discounting the potential of off plan property simply because of the over-publicised risk.

Of course -- as the OPP article pointed out -- most properties currently being sold to the international buyer are off plan, which means it has to be considered to any consumer wanting a decent level of choice.

For anyone considering buying an overseas property, either as an investment or lifestyle choice, there is an excellent guide to researching an off plan purchase here, and for investors I recently found the most comprehensive guide to overseas property investment I have ever read.

S&P on Global Property Markets: Recovery Potential, but Not out of the Woods Yet

This month's grand prize for stating the obvious goes to Standard and Poor, when they said the following in a recent research report:

"As the global housing market shows some signs of recovery, markets are re-emerging at different speeds, depending on the strength of individual real estate fundamentals."

Well, dah! Of course property markets in different countries are going to recover at different speeds, just as prices grew at different speeds before the crunch, and fell at different speeds during it.

They also said that the recovery is likely to be hindered by caution from companies and industries surrounding property markets waiting for clearer signs of recovery before slackening their purse strings.

This more than likely refers to developers and house builders, and in the UK and US property markets. I say this because development was kick-started in most parts of Asia some months ago, when developers realised that they had neglected the massive domestic demand for affordable housing while they focussed on the foreigner.

The report had a common theme, things are good for now but the recovery is precarious. In fact the only place where more falls aren't a distinct possibility out of those mentioned is France, where they say prices have hit bottom and are likely to stay there for a while. The US, Japan, UK, and Ireland are all okay for now, but not out of the woods yet according to S&P.

I know I was a bit critical to begin with, but S&P is one of the best analyses of global housing trends that you will find. OK, that may just be because they agree with a lot of what I think current indicators mean, but hey, that's life.

Bulgaria Property: Ride the Rollercoaster Back Up in 2010

Bulgaria property benefited massively from the boom in overseas property investment. Foreign investors flocked in literally by the thousand for the massive rental yields the low prices offered and to earn while the investment doubled in capital value in a matter of years.

Now that all the world has been battered financially and property values have fallen in almost every region of every country, you could be forgiven for thinking that is what did damage to Bulgaria's popularity also.

It isn't. Something changed, and Bulgaria became somewhere that more people were selling in than buying in long before most overseas property markets saw falling demand.

A friend of mine was working for one of the overseas property portals at the beginning of 2008, and he said that the number of apartments and flats for sale in Bulgaria's hotspots, especially Bansko began to grow rapidly. Supply quickly overran the demand for such properties and prices began to fall. Fast.

The only possible factor I can think of for this phenomenon is that the people had heard that a recession was looming for Bulgaria and tried to sell up before it hit, and/or some of them had bought early in Bulgaria’s heyday and grown disappointed with capital growth.

But now, as demand for overseas property begins to grow again, Bulgaria has a chance of becoming very popular again, here are some of the reasons why:

• Bulgaria property is extremely cheap still, so rental yields are good on the right properties (research x2 but x1)
• Bulgaria is an EU member, which will jibe well with today’s risk averse buyer
• Bulgaria has not adopted the Euro, in other words it has the safety and stability EU membership affirms without the strong Euro upping prices

AS with anywhere, if you do your research well enough, you can get some good cash-flow rental properties in Bulgaria, and you can buy off plan now because demand is expected to stay low until the global economy recovers.

If Turkish Property is to Receive EU Accession Boost, Relations with Greek Cypriots must be Repaired

The EU Enlargement aficionado Oli Rehn has said that solving the Cyprus issue is one of the biggest Turkey can do to further its prospects for securing EU entry.

He said:

"You know well that due to the non-compliance of Turkey in relation to the Additional Protocol of the Ankara Agreement, the EU decided in December 2006 to suspend eight chapters. Therefore, the best way of having a positive impact on the opening of chapters and contributing as a confidence building measure to a comprehensive settlement on Cyprus, will be to start implementing the Ankara Protocol. That is my cordial and friendly advice to the Turkish Government."

The Turkish government, well those senior in foreign affairs are meeting today to discuss how they can accelerate the peace process with Cyprus.

Turkey really wants to become an EU member, so let's all hope that it can put one of its last disputes behind.

EU membership would be massively beneficial to Turkey's property market, and the economy. It is a proven trend: EU membership boosts economies and adds thousands onto property values. This is because of things like removing tariffs from cross-border exports, visa free tourism, and the ability for Turkish residents to travel freely throughout the EU to find work.

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Exchange Rates Erratic, Watch the Lira for Instant Equity on Turkish Property Buys

I have just listened to a podcasted interview with Moneycorp. In the interview, David Kerns, a senior trader with the outfit spoke about the exchange rates between Sterling and the Euro, and Sterling and the Turkish Lira.

What he said on the Euro was hardly surprising. The Pound is weak against the Euro, because of the depressed UK economy that is printing money, and because the Bank of England want a weak Pound so ur companies can get a foothold overseas -- in other words they are quite happy to take advantage of the situation.

However, he did say that the Pound was going to go down to 1.05 Euros in the next month, but it has since rallied and is currently back up at 1.097. Kerns said that a fair price for a Pound is 1.15 Euros, so if the Pound does overshoot this when the UK economy recovers then it is definitely worth making then the time to buy a property in the Eurozone; to capitalise on instant equity.

It is the performance of the Turkish Lira that is the biggest surprise however. Kerns said that the Lira was going to stay strong, because its high yielding potential makes it a favourite for investment among the brave. Since then however, the Pound has climbed to be worth 2.393 Turkish Lira, up from 2.29 as Kerns spoke.

When the Lira strengthens it tends to go as far as 2.30 against the Pound, this is a kind of imaginary floor if you like, and 2.35 - 2.40 is the long term average. With that in mind anytime the Pound is worth more than 2.40, British buyers get instant equity in Turkish property purchases, and it could very well go higher than that in the coming weeks.

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What Does New Election Mean for Greece (From an Overseas Property Perspective)

The Greek election at the beginning of this month shocked many. The election had been called early by then Prime Minister Costas Karamanlis, who said that he was doing so because he could not effectively govern with a one seat majority, having lost several senior minsters to scandals over dodgy economic deals and handling of natural disasters like forest fires and riots.

I doubt he expected the centre left Panhellenic Socialist Movement (PASOK) to sweep to victory on a 43% majority, giving them 160 seats in the 300 parliament, enough for them to form a single party government.

But what does this mean for Greece, the economy and the property market.

I just dug out an article that PASOK leader George Papandreou wrote earlier this year, before the election was even announced.

He said that Greece must completely change its development model if it was to compete with emerging markets in Eastern Europe. He wants to put Greece at the forefront of the green generation to attract more foreign direct investment. He wrote:

"PASOK’s green development strategy is based on three central policy pillars: environmental protection and urban planning, energy, and transport. In order to promote sustainable development and eco-friendly businesses, we have designed a series of policies that include: subsidies and tax breaks for companies investing in environmental technology or renewable energy, shifting the tax burden to operations and products that are harmful to the environment, introducing sustainable construction standards for all public works, and improving the energy efficiency of all public buildings."

This was echoed in his first speech after the election, he said:

"We stand here united before the great responsibility which we undertake," he told cheering supporters in Athens.

He said PASOK had waged "a good fight to bring back hope and smiles on Greeks' faces... to change the country's course into one of law, justice, solidarity, green development and progress".

But in reality it was the 3 billion Euro stimulus package that really swayed the voters. However, one must worry if the stimulus is the right way to go with the international recession now easing, and the fact that Greece's second quarter growth means it has avoided recession so far. Thus by injecting a stimulus at this late stage, Papandreou joins the ranks of world leaders who now have a headache in trying to remove stimulating measures without stunting the recovery, in the great international game of Jenga.

As for the property market: property price growth coincides with economic growth, so if Papandreou can revive the economy then it is good news for the property market. It will also be interesting to see if his green policies materialise, the effect that they have on the economy and the property market; will green property development take off in Greece, and will green tourism increase are two questions that immediately spring to mind. Stay tuned on this blog as we watch the drama unfold.

View property for sale in Greece

German Property Becomes Popular as Investors go for Rental Yields and Security

Portal Property Abroad.com revealed its top ten most popular locations among those searching for overseas property on the site in September. The chart proved what has been suspected about overseas property buying trends since the industry began to recover: that people are buying based on stability, security and rental income as oppose to a quick buck.

The biggest indicator of this was the fact that Germany entered the chart at no. 8. Now, German property has always had its fair share of fans; those who saw the benefit of buying in a country with a renters culture. However, people buying in Germany were under no illusions of soaring capital growth, or even massive rental yields.

But when you look around now at the devastation left by the international downturn; at property prices in established markets lying in tatters, and you see German property still selling at similar prices to what it was in 2007, you realise that the forecasts of stability and security were not mistaken.

That said, Germany wasn't in the top 10 most popular countries very often (before I get my head in my hands I know it was in the APITs top 10 and climbed quite high in 2007).

The fact that it has now entered the Property Abroad.com chart at no 8 confirms that today's investors are a risk averse bunch looking closely and methodically at rental figures.

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UAE and Dubai Property Markets Stabilising

According to new research by the Landmark Advisory, one of the largest real estate investment consultancies in the Emirates, property prices in the UAE and Dubai are starting to stabilise.

According to the firm there was even a moderate 7% increase in the prices of Dubai villas. It said that the supply and demand ratio for villas was pretty balanced and forecast stability on the price of villas in the short-term. "If investor confidence and inventories are stabilizing, then we may have possibly reached a price floor for villas," Commented Jesse Downs, director of research and advisory services for the firm.

Unfortunately the same cannot be said of Dubai apartments, though apartment prices declined just 3% in Q3 after a decline of 16% in the second quarter, and much bigger falls in previous quarters. Explaining the reasons behind this, Ms. Downs said: "Apartment inventories remain stable, with the majority of sellers holding prices, and because many distressed sales that were available over the past 3-6 months are no longer available."

This report by Landmark Advisory comes just days after Jones Lang la Salle released a massive report, highlighting Dubai and Abu Dhabi as having the best long term investment potential in the entire Middle East and North Africa region. This was based on the forecast of increasing businesses renting the cheap office space in the UAE, and the incoming staff providing long term high yield lets to residential property owners -- what it called a change of mindset for the industry.

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Turkey and Egypt Property Markets Benefit from Strong Euro

The property markets of Egypt and Turkey are benefiting massively from the current strength of the Euro against Sterling, which is forcing Brits outside the Eurozone for their -- practically mandatory -- two weeks in the sun each year.

The main benefit that the strong Euro is having is to increase tourism growth to Egypt and Turkey, which were growing rapidly already. But this is also putting them into the spotlight as second home destinations.

The question that many overseas property investors will be asking is: what are the chances of the Euro dropping its value anytime soon. The truth is: it doesn't matter, according to the Association of British Travel Agents tourism to Egypt and Turkey from Britain has been growing at an average of 20% for the past few years. All the Euro strengthening did was accelerating this to a forecasted growth of 25% this year.

Over the long term, the Pound will never get you as much in Euros as it will in Turkish Lira or Egyptian Pound, so of all the people currently choosing Turkey or Egypt, who would normally have holidays in the Eurozone, there is more chance that they will become their destination of choice even if Sterling does regain the ground it has lost against the Euro.

Another benefit of the increased tourism from people who would normally have holidayed in the Eurozone, is that property is a lot more affordable in Turkey and Egypt than it is in Spain or the other Eurozone hotspots. So, if 10% of holidaymakers to Spain could afford a second hokme and bought there, then maybe 60% can afford to buy in Egypt and 35% can afford to buy in Turkey, and maybe 20% will buy.

At any rate the increased tourism is always going to be good for rental yields in the countries and for the economies. As economies grow property values increase automatically; the two go hand in hand. All in all the numbers of Brits buying property in Egypt and Turkey is set to increase massively in the coming months and years.

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American Housing Market has Bottomed Says JP Morgan

An upbeat report by JP Morgan has said that the US housing market has passed its trough and is now moving towards recovery. This was backed-up by a Reuters survey of 41 analysts, in which a third said the market bottomed in April.

However, much like the UK there are still far too many negative factors hanging over the housing market for anyone to honestly forecast a period of rapid growth anytime soon. Negative factors like: thousands of homes still facing foreclosure, thousands already foreclosed and bank-owned, and still high unemployment.

The volatility that still exists in the market was shown all too clearly, when it was revealed that existing home sales had fallen in August. It is 4 consecutive monthly rises in existing home sales that have caused most of the optimism that the market has bottomed, for it to suddenly fall has been a massive blow.

None the less, the momentum behind the recovery in global economies does seem to be gathering pace, with news of economic indicators turning positive almost by the day in the world's leading economies, including a rise in UK retail sales last week, a clear sign of a UK recovery.

This is leading to increased activity in the overseas property market, with reports of British buyers returning to the established markets looking for a bargain. With this, and the reports of a US property market in recovery, there is sure to be a lot of activity from foreigners looking to buy a bargain property in America.

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Morocco Property Proving Profitable for Overseas Investors

Well, I hvae said it before and I will say it again: the worst of the downturn on overseas property must be over because the British national press is picking up its coverage of overseas property markets massively. Nothing said this to me more than when the Telegraph ran a story on Morocco property yesterday.

Morocco is an example of an overseas property market that we should all be holding up. During the boom, Morocco was one of the fastest rising stars. Overseas buyers were making investments in the country based on massive potential for strong rental yields and capital growth.

The great thing is that Morocco has lived up to its forecasts. The economy has continued to grow, and what's more the economic growth has been partly based on continued growth in the construction sector (though it is mostly agriculture). The International Monetary Fund is forecasting 4.4% growth this year.

Not many countries have managed to continue growing economically throughout the downturn, fewer still have seen growth in their construction sectors. But perhaps the most important thing, is that this has led to continued growth in Moroccan property prices throughout the downturn.

The Telegraph has highlighted the popularity of Morocco's traditional riads with British buyers, who buy them cheap and then restore them to their former glory. But the most inreresting part of the article for me, was the fact that the lady mentioned in the article is renting out rooms for £125 - £150 per night.

This is a testament to the popularity of Morocco as a tourism destination. But more importantly, given the low prices of property currently found in Morocco it gives an idea as to what kind of rental yields you can get. In my opinion the off plan resort properties have the potential to be especially profitable, but as always do your research at length.

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Overseas Property Industry: the Worst is Over - the Buyers are Back

Well, it certainly seems that the worst is over. I'm talking about the global financial meltdown that started in America first in late 2006, spreading throughout the world's developed economies like an unstoppable disease into 2007, and breaking down the immune systems of emerging markets, most of which ended up being affected sometime in 2008.

My regular readers will know I am somewhat of a pessimist that can spot a pundit talking up the market to create false optimism a mile away. That said: at the moment there is just too much positivity about to brush away, and, more importantly activity is increasing in the overseas property industry, people are buying again (in numbers).

If you are an overseas property agent, or anyone with a vested interest in the sales of overseas property (to British buyers), and you have survived this far, you can breathe a slight sigh of relief. However, we mustn't rest on our laurels; we must step up a gear and secure every possible sale we can while the going is good, in case things drop off again when the world's government's pull back on their stimulus spending.

The credit crunch, however has brought about changes that will not be reversed for sometime, if ever. No longer are people so quick to hand over their money because an agent tells them that the returns will be huge. People are eager now to do their own (due-diligence) to research the pros and cons of a development and region. Another change is that people are tending to look for cheap property abroad.

This is a good thing, because reports of people losing money because of fraudulent or incompetent developers do the whole industry damage.

Fractional Ownership Property - Fool-Proof Entry Level Investment

Most of you will have heard the term fractional ownership by now, it has increased massively in popularity since the credit crunch increased risk aversion in the field of overseas property investment.

Though there are different set-ups, fractional ownership is -- exactly what it sounds like -- buying a fraction of a property in conjunction with other fractional owners, each buying and owning an equal share with equal rights over usage and equal shares of any rental income.

It is an excellent entry level investment, because the outlay is minimised, and while the returns and split, so is the potential risks involved.

You can look at it like this, what you are paying out is cheap for a lifetime of holidays in top-notch accommodation, that way any returns are a bonus. For example:

I have just found a fractional ownership development on sale at azureoverseas.com, £16,000 buys you an 1/8th share of a 1 bedroom bungalow in a fully equipped Costa Caleta resort. The package includes 6 weeks of usage throughout the year for each of the owners.

For the six weeks holiday for 4 people in the level of (5 star) accommodation that it is, you would be paying at least £3,000 each year. Thus after 6 years of usage the property has paid for itself and any returns you have made during that time and from then on are a bonus.

View fractional ownership property for sale in Spain

Panamanian's Scoff at the Effects of Credit Crunch - Now is the Time to Buy Property in Panama

South American property portal Encuerta25 has revealed the findings of its survey into the Panama property market. According to its report some 65% of respondents think the international financial downturn has had little effect on Panama, and a further 12% think it has had no effect.

I was surprised to find out that only 6% of all people currently buying property in Panama come from Europe, the rest come from the Americas, which isn't a surprise.

Panama became a massively popular destination with overseas property investors, which added to the massive market it had in American retirees buying property in the country -- more than anywhere else in the world.

Panama's impressive economic growth coupled with low property prices, high rental yields (18% not unheard of) and a favourable tax regime are among the reasons for its popularity with overseas property investors.

Now is most definitely the time to buy property in Panama, well actually 2 years ago was the time, but this is all we can do without a time machine. Make no mistake, between now and the completion of the Canal expansion in 2014, property prices in Panama will increase by at least 50%, and possibly even double.

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Panama Economic Activity in June Up on Last Year

Economic activity in Panama was 0.31% higher in June 2009 than it was in June last year, prompting optimism from the government that it could mark the beginning of an overall return to growth in one of Latin America's best performing economies.

After two consecutive months of falling economic activity the June rise brought the decline in Panama's economy down to 0.5% for the first half of this year. This is compared to an 8.44% growth in Panama's economy in the same period of last year.

However, the fact that Panama's economy was so strong in the first half of last year, makes the 0.31% June increase on last year's performance even more poignant.

Panama has average 8% GDP growth in the last few years, and even now, during one of the worst global recessions the world has ever seen, the median forecast for Panama is a 3% growth in GDP for 2009.

I agree that a 3% growth is entirely possible, with potentially even a 4.5% growth over the fiscal year. If this is indeed the turning point in the Panamanian economy then I believe we will be looking at a v-shaped recession/recovery track, with a strong return to growth and a return to similar levels of growth seen in previous years in the 2010/11 fiscal year.

I believe this because Panama is currently like a magnet for investment because of the expansion of one of the most important waterways in the southern hemisphere, the Panama Canal, which cuts Central America in two to link the Pacific Ocean to the Caribbean Sea and Atlantic oceans.

The expansion, due to be completed in 2014 will triple the Canal's expansion and has the potential to increase Panama's GDP by at least 25% in subsequent years. This is making it a hotspot for overseas property investment, with property values also forecast to grow massively.

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Goldman Sachs Forecast on Brazil Overly Cautious?

Jim O'neill, Goldman Sachs chief economist has said that the Brazilian economy has come through the global economic crisis extremely well and is set for 5% growth in the next few years.

His statements have been picked up by the media but no one has mentioned that 5% growth is a very cautious forecast for the Brazilian economy's growth in the next few years.

Brazil is a production powerhouse, with the potential to become one of the world's biggest exporters. Despite its having among the largest stocks of cattle in the world, Brazil is also embracing the world's great growth sectors like renewable energy, thus future proofing the economy to as great an extent as that is possible.

Brazil's economy grew at 5.4% in 2007 and 5.2% in 2008, so to say it will resume growth at a similar rate in the next few years is a very cautious forecast indeed. Especially considering other countries in the region like Panama, which grew at around 10% in the past few years.

The global financial crisis did great damage to Brazil, but after such a scything growth should restart at an accelerated level, because the environment is conducive to greater growth.

This is true in the property market as well. Because Brazil property prices haven't grown in the way that they were forecast to, and probably won't this year, this means that international investors can still pick up some great bargains in the country -- although they will be disappointed that prices haven't fallen.

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Spain Property Set for Less Misery in 2010 as Brits Bag Bargains

Spanish construction is to fall by 25% by the end of this year experts have stated. The global financial crisis caused demand for Spanish property to all-but dry up, meaning a massive over-supply emerged causing prices to fall rapidly.

Developers were forced to continue working on developments that had been started, despite the over-supply. None the less thousands of jobs were lost, as developers cancelled projects in the pipeline, and found it nigh impossible to sell properties already constructed, and impossible to sell off plan.

However, now that development is finally calming down, and prices have fallen almost 30% from their peak, demand is slowly growing, especially when Sterling begins to claw back some ground against the Euro.

The shortening of supply combined should combine with the increasing demand to put a floor below prices next year.

The tide is changing in the field of overseas property; the Brits are once again getting out there and sticking a toe into the water.

You know things are improving when the Times runs a positive story on buying overseas property. The fact that Spain was mentioned several times in the article is evidence that things are also improving for Spain. This makes sense; Spain has always been one of the most popular countries for British holidays, and property buyers, so it is logical that when Brits start buying that Spain will be among the first to benefit.

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Spanish Property Still Topping the Charts with Overseas Buyers

Spain has topped the charts yet again in terms of popularity with overseas property buyers according to a recent chart compiled by major overseas property publication Home Overseas.

Spain took 1st place from its close rival Portugal, which had apparently been most popular in the Home Overseas chart for several months.

The Homes Overseas chart is very different to that of portal Property Abroad.com who had Spain in first place for several months until it was overtaken by America in June, which stayed in top-spot in July as well. America is 7th most popular with Homes Overseas readers, up one place on the previous month. Thailand property is 9th most popular with Homes Overseas and has never appeared on the Property Abroad.com chart.

Activity does seem to be increasing in the Spanish market slowly but surely, as the combination of the price drops and strengthening Sterling vs Euro exchange rate brings people back in to the market in the hope of getting their dream holiday home for a bargain price.

You know things are improving when you read an article titled Is it time to dive back into the overseas property market in the Times, or rather when the answer within the article is a resounding yes.

The article even contained details of a 100% profit made on a Spanish property investment, it read:

"Someone who has followed that advice [to buy resort property in prime coastal locations where the Spanish also buy] is Alexander MacDonald, of Glasgow. The 41-year-old bought a one-bedroom apartment in a Spanish-dominated block in Playa de la Arena, Tenerife, for £40,000 in 2002. He sold recently for £80,000 and is looking to buy something bigger in the area while prices are down."

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Conflicting Reports on the Future of Dubai Property Market

The United Arab Emirates -- and one of the world's -- most talked about property markets, Dubai is also one of the world's hardest to make forecasts about.

Almost every week a new research report is issued with conflicting data about what property prices are likely to do in the near and distant future.

This week a study by JP Morgan found that there would be almost 30,000 unsold units in the emirate by the end of this year. While another study by Jones Lang La Salle said that the market was stabilising, with the quarterly decline now slowed to 6%. Jones Lang La Salle are also forecasting growth in the market in 2011.

Earlier this month, one of the Dubai property market's staunchest advocates wrote a surprising article on how the Dubai market, where prices are now almost 50% lower than they were a year ago may have seen enough falls to call bottom.

He tempered this however, by saying that unless Dubai property could reinvent itself to be more attractive to lifestyle buyers, it may never be the investment hot-spot it once was.

My friend Frank Crowley, director of overseas property specialist Azure Overseas agrees with Jones Lang La Salle, he believes that growth will return to the market in 2011. He said:

"Dubai's biggest problem will be the complete loss of confidence in the market, with the volume of unsold units and unfinished developments a close second.

"The over-supply should slowly be rectified over the next year and a half with people buying as bargains become available to hold until growth returns whenever that may be. And then the negativity should all be forgotten about by 2011, at which point the sheer build quality and prestige of the developments will once again attract global buyers, who will also find the low prices a major attraction."

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Canada Signs Free Trade Deal With Panama

Canada has signed a free trade deal with Panama, which will immediately slash tariffs on exports between the two countries by up to 90%.

The deal will be mutually beneficial, because, though Canada exports far more than it imports from Panama and vice-versa, both will be able to import goods cheaper, because prices will not have to factor in the tariffs.

Panama's imports from Canada, and many other places around the world are vital to its economic emergence.

Panama's economy grew by over 9% last year, and is expected to grow by over 3% this year according to the International Monetary Fund. Therefore this is a savvy move by Canada, as Panama's imports are likely to drop by a lesser margin than that of recession-hit countries.

The US proposed a similar deal with Panama last year, but it has been stalled and now looks likely to be shelved in favour of new policies by the Obama administration.

In 2008 Canada's top goods exports to Panama were:

• Vehicles, including diesel
• Electrical and electronic equipment
• Aerospace (primarily flight simulators)
• Pharmaceuticals
• Pulses (primarily lentils)
• Frozen potato products

The top exports to Canada from Panama were:

• Mineral fuels and oils
• Fruits and nuts
• Fish and seafood products
• Spices
• Coffee
• Mineral ores (primarily silver ores and concentrates)

In 2008, Canada exported six times the amount of goods that it imported from Panama.

Panama's incredible economic present and future continue to make it increasingly popular with overseas property buyers and investors. View Panama property for sale

Portugal Property 4th Most Popular in July

Portugal is currently the 5th most popular country among those searching to buy property abroad. Well, that is according to major UK portal Property Abroad.com which publish a chart of the most popular countries for every month.

The only 4 countries more popular than Portugal were America (1st), Spain (2nd), France (3rd) and Greece 4th. The common denominator being that they are all established markets, and with the exception of America of course they are all in the Eurozone.

Last month, Sterling had reached a very strong point against the Lira, so Turkey property climbing to 5th most popular was understandable, but it was still a shock that Portugal property slipped back 3 places instead of one.

Portugal property is by no means the cheapest overseas property, but there is still room for growth, according to Frank Crowley, director of Azure Overseas.

"Portugal is still growing in popularity as a holiday destination, and as a destination to buy overseas property, especially given the current dissolution with Spanish property, which has benefited Portugal no end," he said.

Azure Overseas is currently marketing property for sale in Portugal on the Silver Coast priced from under £110,000.

Florida Repossession Properties Highlighted for Investment by Experts

Repossessed property in Florida has been identified as one of the best investments. Overseas property expert Liam Bailey has written two articles highlighting the potential gains to be made from the opportunity, one on Overseas Property Mall and one on his own blog Overseas Property World.

Liam believes that it is almost fool proof, he writes:

3, 4 and 5 bedroom (mansions) villas with private pools; the properties that you or I could only dream of are now within reach of the masses. Buying a property with 50% instant equity leaves buyers with only one question: will they ever regain their market value. In Florida’s case the answer is a resounding yes.

When we can talk about the international downturn and housing crises in past tense once and for all, Florida will regain its popularity with international buyers, and as things recover Florida residents will once again be buying houses in the normal way.

Time is of the essence for any Investors wanting to cash-in on this opportunity, because while repossessions are still happening almost daily in the sunshine state the best properties sell very quickly, almost as soon as they come onto the market.

It is also worth advising people to look upon this as an opportunity, not to buy cheap property, but to get more property for your money, a: because the more expensive properties are discounted more heavily, and b: because they are likely to regain their market value more quickly.

German Business Index Shows Worse May Be Over - Keen Interest from Property Investors

There are hopes that the German economy maybe past the worst of the recession after a major index of business confidence rose for the fourth consecutive month and to its highest level since November 2008.

The Ifo index polled 7,000 German firms on the business climate, the current economic situation and business expectations (future). The business climate index rose from 85.9points in June, to 87.3 points in July, the current expectations index rose to 84.3points from 82.4 in June, and the business expectations index from 89.5 to 90.4.

The Germany property market, certainly from an overseas property investment standpoint is very much based on the strength of its economy, with most investors buying properties with a view to the strong residential rental market in places like Berlin -- because of the predominance of German's renting their homes as oppose to buying.

Thus, the investors of yesterday and tomorrow will be keenly watching for any further signs that Europe's largest economy is starting to get back onto its feet.

There are those that believe the economic crisis may forever change the property market, with people taking advantage of any price-falls to buy their house and escape the rental market, but I myself feel this is unlikely -- in Berlin especially renting is a way-of-life.

Economic Growth Potential Makes Panama a Hot Property Investment

I have just read an excellent article on Panama property investment, written by Liam Bailey for the Overseas Property World blog on Wordpress.

It explained the massive boost the Panama economy is going to receive even before the Panama Canal expansion is completed in 2014.

The Panama Canal is one of the biggest contributors to Panama's GDP, and it is a well known fact that the completion of its expansion will be a massive boost to Panama's economic growth, which had average 10% in the few years preceding 2008.

Bailey also pointed out that the Canal Expansion is already proving to be a boost to Panama's GDP, because in advance of the massive boost its completion will be, Panama has become a hot investment tip, for property and all sorts of other investments. In fact, this is the reason why Panama's economy is continuing to grow (3% this year and 4% next according to International Monetary Fund forecasts) throughout the global economic crisis according to Bailey.

But Panama's economy is to receive a massive boost before the expansion is completed. Bailey believes that when global economies, including the US begin to recover, use of the Canal and neighbouring Colon Free Trade Zone will increase GDP growth, as will tourism and exports, which Bailey believes will also start to grow post-crunch.

Increased imports into America as the economy recovers will benefit many South American markets as well as many more around the world, including Italy.

Bailey forgot to mention the fact that property prices are still comparatively low in Panama, increasing the potential of it as an investment.

Cypriot Economy Looks Promising - Makes Property more Attractive

Cyprus is the only Eurozone country expected to avoid the recession, having shown continued economic growth in Q1 and expected to do so throughout this year and next, according to the July Monthly economic and employment monitor by the European Commission Department for Employment, Social Affairs and Equal Opportunities.

According to the report, Cyprus’ GDP has remained relatively stable over the last few months, and growth has continued in the first quarter of 2009, from the 3.7% growth recorded in 2008, making it the only Eurozone country to avoid recession.

The report also said that the commission expects the Cypriot economy to grow by 0.3% this year, and 0.7% next year, which is much slower than previous years but impressive against the back-drop of developed economies like Italy struggling to find growth again next year. However, the EC predictions are moderate given that the Cypriot Finance Ministry has recorded a 1% growth this year already, and the IMF forecasts 2.1% growth for Cyprus in 2010.

"This relatively positive economic outlook is tempered by the substantial decline in tourist activities on the island. Over the five first months of 2009, the tourism sector's income, which accounts for 15 per cent of Cyprus’ GDP, dropped by 11.7 per cent in comparison to the same period a year earlier, and by 17.6 per cent in May alone. The authorities fear a massive 20 per cent drop in arrivals during the holiday high season, which would have dramatic consequences on the island’s seasonal employment,” the report said.

However, the report also stated that despite unemployment in Cyprus having risen continually since September to hit 5.3% in May, that Cyprus still has "one of the lowest [unemployment rates] recorded in the EU".

Cyprus property remains popular with overseas lifestyle buyers and investors, and news like this can only increase its popularity.

Bulgaria Property to Attract New Wave of Overseas Investors

The credit crunch could prove be the best thing that ever happened to the Bulgaria property market, experts have stated.

The international economic downturn has given the Bulgaria property market the chance to reinvent itself and attract a new wave of overseas investor, according to overseas property specialists Azure Overseas, director Frank Crowley said:

"Bulgaria property became hot news with overseas investors between its transition and entry into the EU in 2002/04 and 2006/07, who bought property there on the strength of its potential for short-term gains. The trouble with this was that everyone started selling at the same time, and the market became saturated with similar properties in pockets around the popular areas.

"Now, during the global recession, practically every market that was popular with overseas investors has faced a similar fate as foreigners try to liquidate their assets as quickly as possible. The playing field has been levelled if you like, and Bulgaria has a chance to put forward its strengths of low cost property, great beaches, great ski-slopes and fantastic potential for capital growth over the mid-long term."

Overseas Property Investment: Nothing Has Changed - Really

No one can deny that overseas property investment has been badly damaged by the dreaded credit crunch. From 2004 onwards overseas property investment was a massive growth sector, with emerging market property investment seeing the fastest growth in popularity.

The properties that were available to overseas investors in emerging markets, tended to be off plan properties, which carried the highest risk. Because the potential profits were so great, people were blinded to the risk and poorly advised by shady agents got their fingers burnt.

This has badly damaged the public's confidence in overseas property investment. But what they were saying was true; off plan property in emerging markets is potentially one of the most lucrative of all property investments, and accessible to a wider range of people because of the low prices, you just have to be careful and do your own research.

I would never advise people to pay any more than the initial deposit without making at least one trip to the country to meet with the developer and see the development work. I would also be looking to find out about the developer's background; how many developments have they successfully completed, are they financially sound etc.

This is to make sure that the financing to complete the development is secured before off plan units are being sold and work commences. If the proceeds from off plan sales are being used to fund any portion of the work don't touch it.

When you do your own research you are minimising the risk and increasing the potential reward. Though the downturn has scuppered property price growth for this year and possibly next year as well, the growth people were being promised by decent agents will still be realised in most cases, when the recovery is underway.

If you choose carefully and do your research, the potential gain on an off plan property investment in an emerging market is 100% in the first five years, and 200% in 7-10 years.