Turkish Property and Tourism to Benefit from Economic Realities

Property in Turkey could see increased foreign demand as Europe continues to struggle with the recession and sovereign debt crisis, according to one overseas property commentator.

“We are all feeling the pinch as we struggle into a ‘rocky recovery’,” said Liam Bailey, director of Write About Property, explaining:

“In fact many people are feeling worse now than they did during the recession, because we all thought the worst was past, now inflation is rising faster than growth, and we are full of dread at the impending austerity measures.

“For the next few years, because people always want holidays abroad, we will see continued rises in tourism to low-cost destinations like Turkey, and this will also bring increases in demand for holiday homes and holiday home investments in the country, also fuelled by the country’s low prices.”

Bailey went on to say that Turkey would also benefit from Greece being practically a no-tourist zone.

“Greece has always been one of Turkey’s biggest competitors for tourism. Now, with the British Consulate and others warning of disruptions because of the industrial actions, and terrorist groups threatening to target the tourism industry, many people will give Turkey a wide berth, and many of them will choose Turkey instead.”

For the property market, Bailey also said that Turkey would benefit from being in a better state fiscally than its rivals.

“People are more cautious than ever when it comes to buying overseas property. When you look at Greece, Spain and Portugal being downgraded by investment ratings agencies, and Turkey looking likely to be upgraded, you do the math,” he said.

Bright Signs for Overseas Property in 2010: But What About the Second Bite?

There is no doubt about it: as of the end of 2009 and for at least the first quarter of this year, the fear over the depth the financial crisis could plumb has subsided and anyone who has not been put in financial straits during the last 2/3 years is making plans and taking actions as if things are completely back to normal.

Some people are shouting about a second bite, including me in some areas, but I just wanted to explore the possibility that people going back to normal as they are could feed economies sufficiently enough to avoid the dreaded second bite as the stimulus rugs are pulled out from below us.

Okay, firstly there was a report of massive traffic increases to the prominent UK portals: traffic up 25% to Rightmove Overseas, 32% to the Move Channel and 38% Property-Abroad.com, all in the first seven days of the year. Of course there is the possibility that it was as much to do with the freak weather giving people more time to browse, but one thing about the freak weather is that is will have also increased the inclination to browse for a home in the sun.

Now, we have 133% increase in the sales of Miami condos. You will hear a lot of over 100% rises in the first quarter of this year, but this one holds weight because it gave figures. Condo Vultures research showed that 1655 condos were sold in Miami in the "latter part" of the year, compared to only 711 in the first 6 months.

HolidayLettings.co.uk, Rightmove's sister site has now reported an increase in traffic of 55% as over 1 million people visit the site in the first ten days of the year.

Yes, again this can be put down to the winter blues as Britain experienced freak weather, but I was here during the freak weather, and so was all my family and none of them were on holiday lettings booking trips or looking into buying property overseas on Rightmove.

The fear over the second bite comes from the fact that, at some point, probably within the next 4 months central banks, including the bank of England will start to pull back from their stimulus. This will lead to rising interest rates and falling liquidity. It will also mean more job losses as the government starts paying for the stimulus.

However, everyone knows this is going to happen. The people who work in the government departments likely to be affected by the cutbacks know that they work in the departments likely to be affected by the cutbacks. Therefore it is fairly safe to assume that those currently doing the browsing are able to spend in relative security.

Of course people will get caught out, but no more than normal. And of course there will be people browsing for the sake of browsing, but also, no more than normal.

I think that this current surge of activity is genuinely a very bright sign for the overseas property and tourism industries in 2010.

Top 3 Property Investments for 2010

I have seen a lot of articles in the last week or 2 highlighting the best property investments for 2010. Brazil has been on every one of them, but it won’t be on mine, and you’ll quickly understand why.

1: Turkey

Turkey received over 28 million tourists from around the world in 2008 and there is every indication the number has grown slightly this year. According to government officials they are still on track for their target of 30 million by 2010.

In 2008 they received 1.5 million British visitors. This is expected to be 3 million by 2010, not least because of the strong Euro.

The simple fact is there just aren’t enough commercial accommodation slots for such massive numbers of tourists, which brings rapidly rising demand for privately rented holiday accommodation in Turkey.

This is set to be further boosted as tourism continues to grow and as more and more people use the internet to compile their own package holidays for better quality accommodation and cheaper flights.

Then you have the value for money factor: Turkish property at its low prices always offered fantastic value for money. However, now that the Euro is a lot stronger against the pound, whilst the lira is weaker than its previous long-term average, Turkish property is offering even greater value for money.

According to realtors, Turkish property owners are currently fetching yields upwards of 6%. This is already very impressive and will grow as demand for rental property grows faster than prices in the next 2 years.

2: Egypt

In Egypt’s case it is also rising tourism and low property prices that make it one of the top overseas property investment destinations for 2010.

In our opinion the Red Sea Riviera, especially Hurghada is offering the best opportunities. There are currently dozens of apartments for sale in Hurghada offering guaranteed rental yields of 10 or 12% for 1 to 5 years.

This is because you can buy a 2 bedroom apartment in Hurghada for less than £40k and rent it for about £350 per week. giving a gross yield of 13.94% gross from a very conservative 15 week (32% approx) occupancy. If you make it a more realistic 60% (30wk approx) the gross yield is 25%. Now you can see why Hurghada properties come with such exceptional guaranteed rental yields.

3: America

Whatever we think about America, it is still the largest economy in the world, and it still owns the currency we all base trade on. Properties in America are currently being sold at between 10% more than in 2007, to about 40% less than they were worth in 2007, depending on where you look. Not to mention the tens of thousands of distressed and repossessed properties being sold at discounts of up to 60%.

It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to pick a property that will make a 10% rental yield or maybe even a little more, and to grow as the local economy recovers. Nor does it take a rocket scientist to also make sure that property is capable of regaining its 2007 value in a reasonable amount of time.

Investors doing the calculations on carefully chosen properties are coming up with yields of 140% – 200% after 5 years.

We also like Malaysia because of its strong economic fundamentals, stable property market and favourable tax laws, and India because it is set to see demand for property continue to outstrip supply at an alarming rate.

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Dubai World Restructuring Won’t Affect Property Market – Yeah Right!

OMG I nearly chocked on my coffee for trying not to laugh at this statement: "[the Dubai World debt restructuring] will have no significance [on the real estate sector] because restructuring is a normal word."

The statement comes from one Abdul Majeed Ismail Al Fahim, chairman of Dubai Pearl, speaking to Arabian Business.

He is right; restructuring is a normal word, and one which has been used so much in the last 12 - 18 months that it has almost become white noise in the global-economic newsroom. So, if this had simply been a case of Dubai World "restructuring" its debt then yes, the negative effect may well have been minimal.

That is: if it hadn't been made public that Dubai World had been forced to ask its creditors to postpone its debts, before there was any talk of the word "restructuring". But there was, and because there was we analysts have been able to fill in the blanks and have done so in national newspapers from Arabia to Zimbabwe (excuse the potential for a slight exaggeration there).

The real story goes: state-owned Dubai World is financially incapable of honouring its debts, and the real financial powerhouse of the Emirates (A.K.A Dubai’s rich uncle) refused to bail it out any longer, so it was forced into its current situation. Now the world looks on to see how much of a lesson the rich uncle wants to teach its easily led nephew.

Because of the way the story unfolded this is almost certain to have a negative impact on the property market. After shedding almost 50% in less than a year, Dubai property prices rose 7% in the 3rd quarter according to Colliers international. But one of the market’s biggest potential obstacles was always going to be residual negativity about the crash.

This had obviously began to fade as prices started to rise, but the Dubai World fiasco is bound to set back international sentiment by reminding us all just how much money fell into the Dubai pit never to be seen again.

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Bulgaria Property Finally Making the News for the Right Reasons

The Bulgaria property market has been getting a lot of attention lately, most recently because the government has stopped allowing people to pay in cash when buying property, and because a major new developer is currently assessing buyer demand with the launch of a new development that has been in the pipeline since 2007.

The announcement from the government is undoubtedly an attempt to reduce corruption and money laundering in the property market, which will no doubt be reassuring for foreign buyers in the long run.

The developer, Immorent has launched a new 200 unit apartment development in the high end Simeonovo district of Sophia. Immorent will only be starting construction on the development if sufficient demand emerges from the domestic and international markets. They are not aking deposits or anything like that, just allowing people to register their interest at this stage.

Managing director of the firm Milen Petrov told Overseas Property Professional magazine that despite Bulgaria's dramatic price falls, there was still a lack of good quality product on the market. But the company wanted to assess demand before starting construction.
"We don't need the money from sales to start building," he said. "We purchased the land in 2007 and the project has been in the design stage since. But the big question now is whether to start or to wait."
The company are planning to target the upper-middle end of the market both in Bulgaria and abroad, Petrov added. "We would prefer local buyers who want to live in the properties but we are also marketing to Russian buyers, as well as UK and Scandinavian investors and even nearby Macedonians."

The commercial and retail sector of the Sophia property market have also been making the news recently, including the opening of the European Trade Centre, a five building office complex and shopping mall, now scheduled for Spring 2010. Those sectors ultimately stimulate demand in the residential sector, and my gut tells me that the Immorent development will go ahead.

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Outlook on Spanish Property Market Improving

The outlook for the Spanish property market has been improving in recent months. The rate of decline in house prices slowed in the third quarter, as it had in the second according to new data from the Global Property Guide.

Spanish house prices fell by 7% between Q3 2008 and Q3 2009 according to the GPG index of global house prices. This is slower than the 8.3% contraction between Q2 2008 and Q2 2009 recorded by the Knight Frank estate agency in its index of global house prices.

The quarter on quarter decline in Q3 was just 0.49% according to the GPG index, which is again a lot slower than the 1.9% quarterly decline recorded by Knight Frank in Q2. Based on this slowing in Q3 it is possible that quarterly price growth will run into positive territory in the 4th quarter.

Given the state of the Spanish economy it is entirely plausible that the positive data is because of the increased demand from foreign buyers, which has been seen since April.

New data from mortgagesolutions.com has said that Spanish banks are surprisingly willing to lend to overseas buyers. Overseas mortgage firm Conti has further said that 22% of its enquiries for overseas property mortgages have been for Spanish property purchases.

Recently overseas property portal Property Abroad.com have put Spanish property as second most popular with those searching for property on the site in October. Spain has held second place in the portal's top 10 chart for several months, since being knocked out of 1st place by the popularity of America since May. The Move Channel and Primelocation also put Spain as second most popular in recent monthly charts.

Spain has also been noted for its distressed and repossessed property opportunities. According to overseas property expert Liam Bailey, of sector specialist copywriting firm Write About Property, these opportunities have the potential to be excellent investments, if one chooses carefully, he said in a recent article:

"You simply need to consider who is going to buy the property from you when it is time to sell. If you are buying in one of the areas most popular with expats, and plan your exit strategy based on expatriate buyers, then you must avoid the most over-developed areas; sunbathing is not a spectator sport, and most people will want a half-decent view on at least one side of their holiday properties.

"But if you choose carefully you should be able to resell a property you buy now for at least a 30% profit in 2-4 years."

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Florida Repossession Properties Highlighted for Investment by Experts

Repossessed property in Florida has been identified as one of the best investments. Overseas property expert Liam Bailey has written two articles highlighting the potential gains to be made from the opportunity, one on Overseas Property Mall and one on his own blog Overseas Property World.

Liam believes that it is almost fool proof, he writes:

3, 4 and 5 bedroom (mansions) villas with private pools; the properties that you or I could only dream of are now within reach of the masses. Buying a property with 50% instant equity leaves buyers with only one question: will they ever regain their market value. In Florida’s case the answer is a resounding yes.

When we can talk about the international downturn and housing crises in past tense once and for all, Florida will regain its popularity with international buyers, and as things recover Florida residents will once again be buying houses in the normal way.

Time is of the essence for any Investors wanting to cash-in on this opportunity, because while repossessions are still happening almost daily in the sunshine state the best properties sell very quickly, almost as soon as they come onto the market.

It is also worth advising people to look upon this as an opportunity, not to buy cheap property, but to get more property for your money, a: because the more expensive properties are discounted more heavily, and b: because they are likely to regain their market value more quickly.