The United Arab Emirates -- and one of the world's -- most talked about property markets, Dubai is also one of the world's hardest to make forecasts about.
Almost every week a new research report is issued with conflicting data about what property prices are likely to do in the near and distant future.
This week a study by JP Morgan found that there would be almost 30,000 unsold units in the emirate by the end of this year. While another study by Jones Lang La Salle said that the market was stabilising, with the quarterly decline now slowed to 6%. Jones Lang La Salle are also forecasting growth in the market in 2011.
Earlier this month, one of the Dubai property market's staunchest advocates wrote a surprising article on how the Dubai market, where prices are now almost 50% lower than they were a year ago may have seen enough falls to call bottom.
He tempered this however, by saying that unless Dubai property could reinvent itself to be more attractive to lifestyle buyers, it may never be the investment hot-spot it once was.
My friend Frank Crowley, director of overseas property specialist Azure Overseas agrees with Jones Lang La Salle, he believes that growth will return to the market in 2011. He said:
"Dubai's biggest problem will be the complete loss of confidence in the market, with the volume of unsold units and unfinished developments a close second.
"The over-supply should slowly be rectified over the next year and a half with people buying as bargains become available to hold until growth returns whenever that may be. And then the negativity should all be forgotten about by 2011, at which point the sheer build quality and prestige of the developments will once again attract global buyers, who will also find the low prices a major attraction."
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