2010 is shaping up as the year when things really get moving again in the world of overseas property. 2009 will be known in history as the year the rebound started, and 2010 will determine whether or not the rebound turns into a full scale recovery.
In terms of a property market recovery this looks like being determined by 2 main factors, supply and demand. Before you slap me for stating the obvious, what I mean is: whether demand will continue to rise as government and financial stimuli are removed, and whether or not construction firms can uncurl themselves from the protective ball they rolled into quickly enough to prevent the recovery from stalling.
Sure, this is not the case in all markets; Spain and Dubai are shouting out at me as completely different situations because they are struggling to see any real rises in demand, and have oversupply sufficient to last about 5 years unless sales accelerate rapidly. None the less, that is a pretty good model.
Turkey fits that model perfectly: new home sales in Turkey were 14% higher in the first nine months of this year than last year, and demand has continued to rise, meanwhile construction contracted by almost 20% this year. Now we must all watch and hope that construction can accelerate fast enough so that demand needn't stall on the way up.
Apart from some exceptions, Asia has the supply balance about right for the most part. Thailand is a good example: Thai property developers abandoned the international market early in the crisis, to concentrate on domestic demand, for which they ramped up their development plans; launching new projects throughout this year, so there should be plenty of supply there.
Malaysia however, is now looking at an oversupply problem as developers all (uncurl from their protective balls) come out of the blocks at the same time.
Montenegro could be the one to watch in 2010: when the international crisis came down, most of Montenegro's developers were locked in the country's lengthy planning stages, which meant they were able to simply hold off their plans, without having to cancel developments, or make any kind of announcement. In fact Montenegro has probably been the least talked about market in 2009, and the say no news is good news.
According to a conveyance I interviewed a while back for an article in Overseas Property Mall, many Montenegro developers were left holding land-banks, rather than those in Dubai holding half-finished developments and headaches. 2010 will be the year when all those plans are relaunched, and any that aren't will represent an abundance of cheap land for sale in Montenegro, for any new developers that want to enter the market. The only thing Montenegro will need to watch out for is over-supply, but with the country's lengthy planning phase that really shouldn't be a problem.
