Russian Buyers Increasing in Overseas Property

A survey carried out across several major Russian overseas property exhibitions has found that almost 2 thirds of Russian investors are preparing to complete purchases in the next 6 months.

The results of 3 surveys carried out at major aiGroup property investment shows found that 71% of Russian investors are planning on completing their purchases in the next six months.

Kim Waddoup, chief executive of aiGroup also said that the exhibitors at all three shows had reported "stronger than ever interest in their properties".

Russians, once a massive force in overseas property had dropped off during the financial crisis, but are now coming back with a vengeance. The rush on overseas property is part of a wider trend of capital flight from Russia as those in the emerging market seek out safe zones for their cash.

Central Bank chairman Sergei Ignatyev has estimated $49.3 billion has left the country in the first nine months of the year, already outstripping 2010’s figure of £35.3 billion. $13 billion of capital left Russia in September alone…70% of the third-quarter total.

As far as buying overseas property goes, the Russians favourites have changed a little since the boom time. Russians were known for favouring destinations within a short-haul flight, and with a similar culture/background to their own, with Bulgaria and Ukraine being very popular, although Spain has long been the favourite.

According to a survey of 499 investors conducted by International Residence at the Moscow International Investment Show in March, Spain is still the favourite, followed by Bulgaria and Turkey is the newcomer in third place.

Has the Bulgarian Property Market Bottomed?

Experts are claiming that the Bulgarian property market may have bottomed, making now a good time to reconsider property investment in the country. The market has had a tough time, arguably one of the toughest, not least because its downturn started well before the rest of us. This has led to prices falling up to 50% in the coastal resorts, and 20% in the cities according to those behind the claims. Not that I disagree.

Has the market bottomed? I don’t know and the truth is no one will ever really know when a market hits its absolute rock bottom, in fact by the time we realise that it has we will be the latecomers who have long missed the worm. The best way is to make your own judgements based on growth potential, value for money and macro-economic fundamentals.

In Bulgaria we certainly have low prices, in fact according to the Global Property Guide property  prices in Sofia are currently around 1,759 EUR per sqm, compared to 2,354 EUR per sqm in Belgrade, Serbia, 2,406 EUR per sqm in Vilnius Lituania, and 2,748  in Ljubljana, Slovenia.

This would seem to suggest that Sofia property, and that of other parts of Bulgaria is running undervalue. However, Bulgaria’s downturn bit first because of oversupply and the deep recession and drop in foreign demand caused by the global financial crisis certainly never helped that. So, it may well be the time to buy in some places, but I would still be inclined to do some length research into supply and demand in any areas I looked at.

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Bulgarian GDP Down 5% in 2009, Property Market Looking Up?

Official government figures have revealed that Bulgarian GDP shrank some 5% in 2009. That is of course bad, but given that many economies in the world shrank by that amount or larger, putting it in the proper context it can easily be viewed as a positive for Bulgaria, which some (most if we’re honest) analysts predicted to contract by much more. The IMF predicted a 6.5% contraction for example.

The statistical institute had previously said that the economy contracted 5.1% last year, so the latest data is a revision upwards. What wasn’t revised upwards was the fact that the contraction accelerated on a quarterly basis throughout the year, with the final quarter being the worst.

According to the data the Bulgarian economy contracted by 3.5% in the first quarter, 4.7% in the second quarter, 5.4% in the third quarter, and 5.9% in the final quarter.

The government is expecting a further 2% contraction for this year, which is what it has based its forecast on.

Meanwhile Bulgaria property is becoming more popular. According to data released by leading portal Primelocation, searches for Bulgarian property increased by over 50% in January.

Bulgaria property is known as being some of the lowest priced in the world. Thus, with the level of research that today’s buyers are known to be doing this presents the chance of getting some exceptional value for money on carefully chosen properties. There have been reports of oversupply, but to a lifestyle buyer after a quality ski resort property for example, that doesn’t necessarily matter all that much if that are able to get a really good deal/

Bulgaria Property Finally Making the News for the Right Reasons

The Bulgaria property market has been getting a lot of attention lately, most recently because the government has stopped allowing people to pay in cash when buying property, and because a major new developer is currently assessing buyer demand with the launch of a new development that has been in the pipeline since 2007.

The announcement from the government is undoubtedly an attempt to reduce corruption and money laundering in the property market, which will no doubt be reassuring for foreign buyers in the long run.

The developer, Immorent has launched a new 200 unit apartment development in the high end Simeonovo district of Sophia. Immorent will only be starting construction on the development if sufficient demand emerges from the domestic and international markets. They are not aking deposits or anything like that, just allowing people to register their interest at this stage.

Managing director of the firm Milen Petrov told Overseas Property Professional magazine that despite Bulgaria's dramatic price falls, there was still a lack of good quality product on the market. But the company wanted to assess demand before starting construction.
"We don't need the money from sales to start building," he said. "We purchased the land in 2007 and the project has been in the design stage since. But the big question now is whether to start or to wait."
The company are planning to target the upper-middle end of the market both in Bulgaria and abroad, Petrov added. "We would prefer local buyers who want to live in the properties but we are also marketing to Russian buyers, as well as UK and Scandinavian investors and even nearby Macedonians."

The commercial and retail sector of the Sophia property market have also been making the news recently, including the opening of the European Trade Centre, a five building office complex and shopping mall, now scheduled for Spring 2010. Those sectors ultimately stimulate demand in the residential sector, and my gut tells me that the Immorent development will go ahead.

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European Property Investment on the Increase – Now is the Time to Get Back in the Saddle

Investment in European property jumped 53% in the third quarter of 2009 according to Cushman and Wakefield. Yields are also on the up across Europe. With the exception of the UK, the average yield on European property investments rose 3 basis points on the quarter – the largest quarterly rise since late 2007.

This was part of a report from Cushman and Wakefield on the rising confidence in the European real estate investment sector.

Now is certainly looking like a very good time to get back into overseas property investment in Europe, with a view to completing acquisitions into 2010. Take Germany for example:

Jones Lang la Salle are forecasting that rents on German offices will be 6% lower by the end of this year. Germany is the biggest economy in Europe, largely because of its massive export sector.

A dramatic fall in rental rates on German offices, in line with business expansion beginning to remerge, will likely spark a massive drive on business expansion in German cities; local business expansion, and foreign companies taking advantage of the situation to open offices in Germany.

This will stimulate increased demand in the residential sectors, on property to rent and property to buy. German property has often been overlooked by residential property investors, because other locations offer more spectacular yields, but German property has always been a world beater in terms of the risk/reward ration on buy to let investments,

Now that the foreign investors the world over have learned that solid rental potential that can withstand external pressures is the key to a sound property investment, German property is likely to be high on more people’s short-lists. Such a dramatic fall in office rental rates will push it even higher.

On top of that we have the fact that Germany and Italy accounted for 63% of all retail property investments in the first half of this year. Retail investment is expected to increase in the second half of the year according to analysis by CB RIchard Ellis, and Germany’s retail sector is well placed for some solid growth. This will further fuel demand in the residential sector.

Romania is another market seeing some good expansion in the commercial office sector of late. Analysis by BNP Paribas noted a major increase in sub-leasing from small business expansion. With most of the growth coming from companies involved in business consultancy, IT, private medical public institutions and Utilities, indicating expansion in those sectors within the economy. Therefore demand for residential Romanian property should see some growth in 2010.

Bulgaria sees the opening of the European Trade Centre, a five building office complex and shopping mall in Sofia, now scheduled for Spring 2010. This, again will stimulate increasing demand for Bulgarian property to rent and buy in the residential sector in the area.

Outside of Europe proper, Turkey is doing very well on the back of low interest rates and extended term mortgages. In the two months ending October, the Turkish real estate sector expanded by 2%, compared to a growth of 3% in the previous 9 months. This acceleration is thought to have been because of improving sentiment, and derestricted lending by the banks, including an increase in the term of low-rate loans from 60 months to 10 years.

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Bulgaria Property to Attract New Wave of Overseas Investors

The credit crunch could prove be the best thing that ever happened to the Bulgaria property market, experts have stated.

The international economic downturn has given the Bulgaria property market the chance to reinvent itself and attract a new wave of overseas investor, according to overseas property specialists Azure Overseas, director Frank Crowley said:

"Bulgaria property became hot news with overseas investors between its transition and entry into the EU in 2002/04 and 2006/07, who bought property there on the strength of its potential for short-term gains. The trouble with this was that everyone started selling at the same time, and the market became saturated with similar properties in pockets around the popular areas.

"Now, during the global recession, practically every market that was popular with overseas investors has faced a similar fate as foreigners try to liquidate their assets as quickly as possible. The playing field has been levelled if you like, and Bulgaria has a chance to put forward its strengths of low cost property, great beaches, great ski-slopes and fantastic potential for capital growth over the mid-long term."