Property prices in Germany are expected to continue decelerating as the economy is slowing down. During the second quarter of this year the hedonic house price index fell by 2.65% compared to the previous quarter after showing a rise of 2.8% in the third quarter of 2011, of 2.7% in the fourth quarter, and of 3.9% during the first quarter of this year.
In June this year the average price of an apartment fell by 1.74%, while the average price of a new detached home dropped by 0.28%. However the average price of existing homes increased by 3.94%.
In the year ending June 2012, the overall house price index increased by 6.7%. The average price of an apartment was €149,700 in June, while the average price of a new detached home was €250,600, and the average price for existing homes was €192,950.
Over the last couple of years prices in Germany have increased modestly, with the house price index rising by 2.97% in 2010, and by 5.44% in 2011. The number of dwelling permits increased by 21.7% to reach 228,400 units in 2011, and completions rose by 14.6% to 183,000 units.
Last year the German economy expanded by 3%, after seeing GDP growth of 3.6% in 2010. However this year the IMF is predicting growth of just 0.6%, and the first-quarter of this year saw growth of just 0.5%. Last month Moody’s placed Germany on a negative sovereign credit outlook due to the burden the country faces in its efforts to keep the Eurozone together during the current debt crisis.
However rental yields are increasing and most Germans choose to live in rented accommodation rather than buy their own home. Around 55% choose to rent whereas owner occupation is currently somewhere around 42%.
Saturday 25 August 2012
Sunday 19 August 2012
New Zealand House Sales up 20% on Last Year
Latest figures from the Real Estate Institute of New Zealand show how sales rose in almost every region of the country in July 2012, increasing nearly 20% compared to a year ago. Their data shows there were 5,907 unconditional sales in July, an increase of 19.9% compared to the same month last year, but a fall of 3.7% compared to June.
In June the national median house price reached a high of $372,000, but July saw this price decline by $11,000 to reach $361,000. Just about every region recorded an increase in sales volumes compared to July 2011, with Taranaki registering the largest increase of 62.7%.
Much of the interest remains centred on Auckland and Christchurch. Auckland in particular has seen strong demand right throughout the winter, even though property prices aren't increasing substantially. The median price in Auckland has been at a high of $500,000 for three consecutive months, while the median price in Christchurch has increased to $354,300 due to continuing short supply.
According to estate agents these figures show a recovery rather than a boom in the housing market. They have pointed out the number of housing transactions in earlier years such as in July 2003, reached highs of more than 10,000, and that the easing of the national median house price shows buyers are still cautious.
According to government value, Quotable Value, national property prices rose by 2.2% during the three months to the end of July, and have increased by 4.6% during the past 12 months. Their figures show property prices are now just 0.8% of the market peak reached in 2007.
In June the national median house price reached a high of $372,000, but July saw this price decline by $11,000 to reach $361,000. Just about every region recorded an increase in sales volumes compared to July 2011, with Taranaki registering the largest increase of 62.7%.
Much of the interest remains centred on Auckland and Christchurch. Auckland in particular has seen strong demand right throughout the winter, even though property prices aren't increasing substantially. The median price in Auckland has been at a high of $500,000 for three consecutive months, while the median price in Christchurch has increased to $354,300 due to continuing short supply.
According to estate agents these figures show a recovery rather than a boom in the housing market. They have pointed out the number of housing transactions in earlier years such as in July 2003, reached highs of more than 10,000, and that the easing of the national median house price shows buyers are still cautious.
According to government value, Quotable Value, national property prices rose by 2.2% during the three months to the end of July, and have increased by 4.6% during the past 12 months. Their figures show property prices are now just 0.8% of the market peak reached in 2007.
Sunday 12 August 2012
Property Prices in China Begin to Rise Again
The average price of housing in 70 cities in China increased in July for the second straight month leading to speculation that property prices have already bottomed out. However experts feel the government is unlikely to let prices rise to much, and will act to curb any return to speculative buying.
Data provider China Real Estate Index System surveyed real estate firms and property developers and found the average price of housing was $1,369 per square metre in July, an increase of 0.33% on June.
Analysts have also noticed some property showrooms have been very crowded during project launches, as an easing of property curbs seems to have resulted in increased sales numbers which in turn is driving up prices. Property prices rose in 70 cities, but fell in 30 cities compared to the previous month. The largest increases were seen in smaller cities, with Liaocheng and Wuhu city posting increases of 2.7% and 2.67% respectively.
These price increases haven't gone unnoticed by central government who is already warning local governments to tighten up the property curbs.
The news for August may be a little better for the government as it's typically quiet and prices could moderate. Overall experts still think there could be some downward pressure on prices, and that average prices will remain flat compared to the last few years.
The government still remains adamant over curbing investment demand and is doing its best to make sure that homes are for real use rather than just for investment. It predicted that inventory levels will peak during the fourth quarter and that this will keep prices from rising too quickly.
Data provider China Real Estate Index System surveyed real estate firms and property developers and found the average price of housing was $1,369 per square metre in July, an increase of 0.33% on June.
Analysts have also noticed some property showrooms have been very crowded during project launches, as an easing of property curbs seems to have resulted in increased sales numbers which in turn is driving up prices. Property prices rose in 70 cities, but fell in 30 cities compared to the previous month. The largest increases were seen in smaller cities, with Liaocheng and Wuhu city posting increases of 2.7% and 2.67% respectively.
These price increases haven't gone unnoticed by central government who is already warning local governments to tighten up the property curbs.
The news for August may be a little better for the government as it's typically quiet and prices could moderate. Overall experts still think there could be some downward pressure on prices, and that average prices will remain flat compared to the last few years.
The government still remains adamant over curbing investment demand and is doing its best to make sure that homes are for real use rather than just for investment. It predicted that inventory levels will peak during the fourth quarter and that this will keep prices from rising too quickly.
Sunday 5 August 2012
Latest Figures Show New Home Sales Increased in Australia
The latest figures for June show sales of new homes in Australia increased for the second month in a row, according to the Housing Industry Association. Their report showed an increase of 2.8% in June which is being attributed to a 15.7% increase in the sales of multi-units. In contrast the sales of detached homes grew by just 0.7% in June having declined by 2% in May.
The chief economist for the HIA, Harley Dale, has pointed out that although these figures are encouraging sales in the multi-unit sector are still 36% below their 10 year average.
During the last quarter the sales of detached homes fell by 1.1%, and were 24.5% lower than the same quarter last year. Sales volumes for detached homes are currently around 35% below the 10 year averages.
Lower interest rates may help the housing market to some extent, but this impact is likely to be minimal. Experts believe more investment and reform from the governments, and especially the federal government, is key in helping to boost the housing sector.
Seasonally adjusted figures for June show the number of new detached house sales rose by 2% in New South Wales, by 4.4% in South Australia and by 23.5% in Western Australia. However sales of detached houses fell by 11% in Queensland and by 9.6% in Victoria. Seasonally adjusted figures for the June quarter show sales of detached homes fell by 6.2% in New South Wales, by 21.1% in Queensland and by 8.3% in South Australia. However Victoria sales increased by 9.8% due to first-time buyers making the most of the state boost before it ended.
Saturday 28 July 2012
American Housing Market Turns Again
It was fun to get swept up in the reports that the US housing market had bottomed, and indeed that is what mounting evidence seemed to suggest. However, the latest round of data has really knocked the stuffing out of any hopes that we are in recovery.
The Commerce Department found that new build home sales fell sharply in June. According to the report signed contracts to buy new homes fell 8.4% from the previous month, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, although they are still up 15% from a year ago. Sales levels are now at their lowest since January.
Sales of existing homes slipped 5.4% in June to an annual rate of 4.37 million units and are down 2.6% in the second quarter (4.537 million units). Combined sales of new and existing homes fell 0.4% to an annualized rate of 4.9 million homes, following three consecutive quarterly gains.
Meanwhile the rental market remained positive, with the residential rental vacancy rate falling to 8.6 per cent from 8.8 per cent in the January-March period, the commerce department said on Friday. The second-quarter reading was the lowest since 2002.
It can still be hoped that the strength in the rental market will lead to recovery in the wider market, especially as builders break more ground on multi-family housing projects. On that note, the home ownership rate edged up to 65.5 per cent in the second quarter, from 65.4 per cent in the previous quarter, the commerce department said.
Of course, the strong rental market continues to be good news for foreign investors in the US property market, and foreign investors needn't particularly care about a recovery in the wider market as long as their properties are earning good rents. That said, if the recent run of positivity wasn't the recovery then one wonder when is the US market going to recover. However, June's data could yet come to be seen as a blip on the upward trajectory of recovery – time will tell.
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The Commerce Department found that new build home sales fell sharply in June. According to the report signed contracts to buy new homes fell 8.4% from the previous month, according to the U.S. Commerce Department, although they are still up 15% from a year ago. Sales levels are now at their lowest since January.
Sales of existing homes slipped 5.4% in June to an annual rate of 4.37 million units and are down 2.6% in the second quarter (4.537 million units). Combined sales of new and existing homes fell 0.4% to an annualized rate of 4.9 million homes, following three consecutive quarterly gains.
Meanwhile the rental market remained positive, with the residential rental vacancy rate falling to 8.6 per cent from 8.8 per cent in the January-March period, the commerce department said on Friday. The second-quarter reading was the lowest since 2002.
It can still be hoped that the strength in the rental market will lead to recovery in the wider market, especially as builders break more ground on multi-family housing projects. On that note, the home ownership rate edged up to 65.5 per cent in the second quarter, from 65.4 per cent in the previous quarter, the commerce department said.
Of course, the strong rental market continues to be good news for foreign investors in the US property market, and foreign investors needn't particularly care about a recovery in the wider market as long as their properties are earning good rents. That said, if the recent run of positivity wasn't the recovery then one wonder when is the US market going to recover. However, June's data could yet come to be seen as a blip on the upward trajectory of recovery – time will tell.
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Saturday 21 July 2012
Mumbai Property Market Grinds to a Halt
According to the latest Knight Frank report, the property market in Mumbai is seeing low levels of activity. There are fewer apartments and homes being put on the market as sellers wait for conditions to improve. Buyers are also being put off by increases in building costs, and some of the better neighbourhoods are seeing vacancy rates as high as 48%.
Between 2011 and 2012 just 45,000 apartments were sold in Mumbai's metropolitan region which is well below the market average of 80,000 units a year. There is a current inventory of 80,000 flats, but many buyers are choosing to wait and see believing prices will drop in the near future.
Since the peak of the market in 2007 sales have dropped by more than 60%, and by 35% from 2011. Normally this decline in sales would have brought about a price correction, but this hasn't happened as a delay in approvals has ensured the market equilibrium is maintained. The fall in the number of units launched has offset the impact of prices.
So far this year just 55,000 flats have been launched which is a decline of many 40% compared to the 92,000 units launched in 2011. Developers are choosing to actively delayed project launches, and to sell current inventory before launching any fresh product to help ease any downward pressure on prices. Many developers simply cannot afford to cut prices as the costs of land, raw materials and labour have risen substantially, eating into current operating margins of 30% to 35%.
Between 2011 and 2012 just 45,000 apartments were sold in Mumbai's metropolitan region which is well below the market average of 80,000 units a year. There is a current inventory of 80,000 flats, but many buyers are choosing to wait and see believing prices will drop in the near future.
Since the peak of the market in 2007 sales have dropped by more than 60%, and by 35% from 2011. Normally this decline in sales would have brought about a price correction, but this hasn't happened as a delay in approvals has ensured the market equilibrium is maintained. The fall in the number of units launched has offset the impact of prices.
So far this year just 55,000 flats have been launched which is a decline of many 40% compared to the 92,000 units launched in 2011. Developers are choosing to actively delayed project launches, and to sell current inventory before launching any fresh product to help ease any downward pressure on prices. Many developers simply cannot afford to cut prices as the costs of land, raw materials and labour have risen substantially, eating into current operating margins of 30% to 35%.
Sunday 15 July 2012
Foreign Investors Losing Love for Singapore, or Maybe their Bottle
Singapore is seeing fewer foreign investors, and this is at least partially due to the stamp duty recently imposed on overseas buyers. Developers who are willing to absorb at least part of the stamp duty are continuing to see sales.
The increase in stamp duty was one of several measures imposed by the Singapore government in order to curb sales to foreign investors as there work concerns that housing was becoming too expensive for residents. By the time these measures were in place the international sales market had already quietened down due to the global economic situation, and the introduction of additional taxes has only cooled the market down further.
During the first quarter of this year property values in Singapore fell for the first time in three years, according to data from the government. Property prices at the higher end of the market fell by 0.9% compared to the previous quarter.
Prices are expected to continue to decline for the rest of this year due to the number of properties currently on the market. Although these price declines are minimal, they are in considerable contrast with the price increases seen over the past few years, as Singapore has seen the largest price gains in the world.
Between the fourth quarter of 2006 and the fourth quarter of 2011, property prices in Singapore have risen by 50.5%. The only areas to see larger price increases are China, Hong Kong and Israel. In 2007 the price increase for Singapore was an incredible 33%. Singapore is desirable as it is seen as being a relatively transparent market, especially in comparison with other Asian cities. The percentage of foreign buyers increased from 11% in 2005 to 17% in 2011.
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